Dépenses militaires et croissance économique au Mali : le rôle de la sécurité
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21323911Keywords:
dépenses militaires, croissance, équations simultanéesAbstract
Cet article examine l’impact des dépenses militaires sur la croissance économique au Mali dans un contexte de crise multidimensionnelle sur la période de 1961-2022 en utilisant un modèle à équations simultanées. Les données utilisées pour l’estimation proviennent de la base de données de la Banque mondiale (WDI et WGI), de l’Institut International de Recherche sur la Paix de Stocholm (SIPRI) et de l’Institut National de la Statistique (INSTAT). L’estimation économétrique montre que l’effet direct des dépenses militaires sur la croissance économique est positif mais statistiquement non significatif, alors que les effets indirects via l’épargne et la balance commerciale sont négatifs. L’effet global demeure néanmoins positif, les retombées directes compensant largement les effets indirects. Sur le plan des politiques économiques, ces conclusions plaident pour le développement d’une industrie de la défense nationale, transformant le besoin sécuritaire en levier de croissance et de résilience macroéconomique.
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