Effet du Programme d’Initiative Riz sur le rendement du riz face à la variabilité climatique au Mali
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18363055Mots-clés :
Rice Initiative Programme, yield, variance, mean, climate variabilityRésumé
Cette étude évalue les effets du Programme d’Initiative Riz (RIPRO) sur le rendement moyen du riz et sa variance dans un contexte de variabilité climatique, en utilisant une fonction de production stochastique. L’analyse repose sur une estimation en trois étapes par la méthode des moindres carrés généralisés faisables afin d’estimer une fonction de production translogarithmique à partir de données de panel couvrant des variables climatiques et non climatiques dans six régions rizicoles, sur la période allant de 1987 à 2017. Les résultats montrent que le Programme d’Initiative Riz a eu un effet positif sur le rendement moyen du riz. Ils indiquent également que la variabilité climatique influence le rendement moyen du riz à travers des variables telles que l’écart de température par rapport au niveau optimal pour la culture du riz et l’amplitude thermique diurne. Le gouvernement et ses partenaires au développement devraient encourager les producteurs à adopter des variétés améliorées de riz capables de résister aux températures élevées, ainsi que des pratiques de semis précoce afin d’éviter les stress liés aux fortes températures.
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